Dealing With the Small Weapons of Mass Destruction

By Mark Downes 

Disarmament at a Crossroad 

In an era of global rearmament, multilateral stagnation, and the erosion of international norms, progress on disarmament appears increasingly elusive. Yet, amid these challenges, small arms control stands out as a rare area of forward momentum. Recent developments— including the adoption of the Global Framework on Ammunition and the creation of the Open-Ended Technical Expert Group on New Technologies (OETEG) under the UN Programme of Action on Small Arms—reflect important strides by the conventional arms control community.

Geneva-based institutions such as the Small Arms Survey, the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), and the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs (UNODA), as well as various diplomatic missions, have played a central role in all of these efforts, and their continued leadership and engagement will be critical in supporting effective implementation of the international arms control initiatives. 

The Impact of Inaction 

The impact of inaction on small arms and light weapons (SALW) is immediate and deadly. The illicit proliferation of SALW is fueling record levels of violence, undermining peacebuilding, and weakening institutions. According to the Small Arms Survey’s Global Violent Deaths database, over 500,000 people died violently in 2021, with more than 260,000 killed by firearms—a figure likely to have worsened in subsequent years of ongoing violence in Palestine, Ukraine, and Sudan. 

Violent deaths, however, are only the tip of the iceberg. Injuries, the destruction of infrastructure, displacement, and rising security costs all contribute to the broader societal burden of armed violence. For instance, recent research in the Caribbean shows that the average cost of treating a single gunshot wound can be up to eleven times the region’s annual per capita public health spending.

This data underscores the deep link between armed violence and development. In many regions, the illicit proliferation of small arms and light weapons is not only a security issue—it is also a public health, governance, and development challenge.

Whether in the Caribbean or on the streets of Europe, or Central and South America, the spread of illicit weapons has devastating and long-lasting effects. It erodes public trust in state institutions and undermines governments’ ability to invest in other priorities such as health, education, and infrastructure. 

When the economic costs of armed violence are taken into account, its full impact on national and community development becomes even more apparent. Whether in the Caribbean or on the streets of Europe, or Central and South America, the spread of illicit weapons has devastating and long-lasting effects. It erodes public trust in state institutions and undermines governments’ ability to invest in other priorities such as health, education, and infrastructure. 

Global Trends Heighten the Risk 

Renewed military competition among major powers and ongoing conflicts are fueling a global arms race, as states seek to modernise and expand their armed forces. One consequence of this trend is the rapid growth of the global small arms market. Increased demand—both licit and illicit—is accelerating the proliferation of small arms and light weapons, including into the hands of non-state actors across multiple regions. 

Evidence from the Survey’s 2024 research highlights this risk clearly. For example, in local markets at the Afghanistan– Pakistan border region, NATO-pattern weapons have become increasingly accessible. Similarly, the illicit spread of man-portable air defence systems (MANPADS) across the Middle East and North Africa underscores the persistent threat—to both military and commercial aviation—posed by unsecured stockpiles and weak controls. 

The good news is that solutions are within reach. Experience shows that strengthening physical security and stockpile management (PSSM) is one of the most effective ways to prevent weapons from being diverted from state stockpiles. Improving arms regulation, border and customs enforcement, and strengthening policing and investigative capacity can also significantly disrupt illicit arms trafficking. 

The good news is that solutions are within reach. Experience shows that strengthening physical security and stockpile management (PSSM) is one of the most effective ways to prevent weapons from being diverted from state stockpiles.

Importantly, addressing the demand side of proliferation is just as critical. Community engagement—including the promotion of safe storage practices, support for violence prevention initiatives, and the development of local strategies to reduce armed violence—can have a transformative impact. 

Policy Priorities in 2026 

The risks outlined above highlight that ad hoc responses are no longer sufficient. Preventing the further spread and misuse of small arms and light weapons requires forward-looking measures that combine data-driven analysis, strong security practices, and integrated international cooperation. Building on existing lessons, several priorities should guide policy in 2026. 

First, it is essential to strengthen data collection and analysis. Without detailed, reliable data, small arms control efforts tend to be reactive and overly broad. Effective policymaking requires granular, disaggregated data on illicit flows and trafficking networks. Improved data enables proactive interventions, hotspot identification (such as border crossings and transit routes), better-targeted supply chain disruption, and the monitoring and evaluation of the effects—or lack thereof—of policies and interventions. 

Equally important is the need to prioritise physical security and stockpile management (PSSM). Many illicit weapons originate from poorly secured government armouries. Recent gun shop burglaries in Switzerland have underscored the critical need for robust physical security measures and strict inventory controls. These safeguards not only prevent weapons from leaking into black markets, criminal networks, or insurgent groups but also help curb internal theft and corruption within the security sector. Safeguarding ammunition is particularly critical as this weapon category has long been a weak spot in the international control regime, despite the deleterious impact illicit ammunition flows can have on armed violence. 

In addition, it is necessary to reinforce links between arms control, security governance, and mine action. Security is a foundational pillar of any reconstruction effort, whether in Syria, Sudan, or Ukraine. Clearing mines to restore access to agricultural and residential land, building an effective and accountable security sector, and preventing the proliferation of small arms and light weapons are all essential to avoiding a relapse into conflict. Geneva is uniquely positioned to lead in this area. It brings together key institutions—including the Small Arms Survey, the Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF), and the Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining (GICHD)—whose combined expertise can support integrated, practical solutions at the intersection of disarmament, security, and development. 

Meeting these challenges will also depend on the ability of states and institutions to work together more effectively. Therefore, there is a clear need to promote integrated approaches to enforcement and capacity-building. 

At the same time, effective responses must keep pace with rapidly evolving threats. This makes it vital to address gaps in international frameworks related to PMFs and improvised weapons, ammunition, and explosives. The use of improvised weapons, ammunition, and explosives—and what is known as privately made firearms (PMFs)—is rising sharply and extending beyond traditional conflict zones. This trend presents growing challenges for law enforcement and military forces around the world. However, existing arms control frameworks have not kept pace with the rapid evolution of weapons design, production, and distribution. The lack of regulatory mechanisms and global standards to address these threats has created serious governance gaps that must be urgently closed to prevent further proliferation and misuse. 

Meeting these challenges will also depend on the ability of states and institutions to work together more effectively. Therefore, there is a clear need to promote integrated approaches to enforcement and capacity-building. Effective arms control requires coordination across sectors and agencies. A strong example is the work undertaken by the Small Arms Survey, in collaboration with INTERPOL and the World Customs Organization, on behalf of the EU and League of Arab States, to jointly train defence, police, and customs officials. These integrated training programmes enhance cooperation in weapons and ammunition management, criminal investigations, and border control, helping to break down silos and improve operational effectiveness across the arms control chain. 

Finally, policies need to be able to respond quickly when crises erupt. To this end, policymakers must establish rapid response mechanisms for at-risk stockpiles. The fall of the Assad regime in Syria saw tens of thousands of small arms and light weapons looted from unsecured government stockpiles. These weapons continue to fuel ongoing violence, while unplanned explosions at unsecured munitions depots risk causing civilian casualties. This mirrors the experience in Libya, where the international community failed to respond swiftly following the collapse of the Gaddafi regime in 2011. Thousands of MANPADS were lost, with weapons trafficked across borders contributing to conflicts in the Sahel, Sudan, and Syria. To prevent history from repeating itself, there is an urgent need for a dedicated, deployable mechanism that can support weapons and ammunition security in real time—securing vulnerable stockpiles before they are looted, trafficked, or used to fuel further violence and terrorism. 

In today’s evolving security environment, the need for impartial, evidence-based analysis of arms flows, illicit markets, and emerging threats has never been greater. The policy tools and expertise to implement exist, and Geneva-based actors can play important roles in advancing this agenda—but now is the time to act decisively.

Conclusion: A Call for Integrated Action 

As global defence spending rises—often at the expense of development—the spread of small arms continues to accelerate, with dangerous implications for international peace and security. Addressing this challenge requires more than supply-side measures like transfer controls and stockpile management. It demands a holistic, prevention-oriented approach that tackles both the drivers of armed violence and the demand for weapons. 

In today’s evolving security environment, the need for impartial, evidence-based analysis of arms flows, illicit markets, and emerging threats has never been greater. The policy tools and expertise to implement exist, and Geneva-based actors can play important roles in advancing this agenda—but now is the time to act decisively.

About the Author 

Mark Downes is the Director of Small Arms Survey.